FATHOMPRACTICESound judgement in deep water

Wellington · Aotearoa New Zealand

Decide and respond with confidence when the regulatory context won’t hold still.

For regulators and public bodies working in conditions that are uncertain, changing and contested. I work with boards and executives, with regulatory managers and advisory teams, and with cross-sector groups that include industry and NGOs.

Thirty minutes, no charge.

When to call

When the usual pattern stops working.

This work usually begins with a quiet signal, not a crisis.

  • The same issue keeps returning to the agenda in a slightly different form.

  • Assurance is green and the room is still uneasy.

  • A decision will bind successors, and nobody can say what it assumes.

  • The strategy is agreed and the practice underneath it has not moved.

The proposition

Regulation is the stewardship of constraints in an uncertain world.

Stewardship means holding a system in trust: changing the constraints so that good conduct becomes the likely path, and leaving it in better condition than you found it. Regulators can’t govern for a future. We steward our way through uncertain futures.

The name

A fathom is a measure of depth. To fathom something is to understand it, to get to the bottom of it.

Rob Warner presenting to participants seated around tables in a workshop room.
Delivery, not slideware. The work happens in front of the people who have to act on it.

Fathom 2 · The work

What Fathom does

Six services, each answering a different need. Bring me in when the decision is hard to frame, the evidence is incomplete, or a relationship with a regulator or funder is creating friction you cannot yet name.

01 · See what is really going on

Sense-making

Get what the agency already knows onto one table, in time to use it.

The knowledge exists, in different teams, and it usually arrives after the decision has been taken. I run a session that pulls together what your people hold in different places and builds one coherent picture of the operating environment, so the group acts on that picture rather than several partial ones.

What it settles

What is really going on, where confidence is running ahead of evidence, and what is still a guess.

Half a day to two days · Board, executive or leadership team

02 · Notice earlier

Strategic foresight

Not prediction. The habit of noticing earlier.

A signal worth watching is usually mundane and already sitting in your own data. Waiver applications climbing for a year before anyone proposes a rule change. One third party quietly taking on a third of your verification work without a decision ever being made. We settle which of those matter, who is watching them, and what you do on the day one of them moves.

What it settles

Which futures would break this, and what tells you one of them is arriving.

A day, or a short project · Board and executive · HIFO, with Dr Grant Pink through ANZSOG

03 · Settle the real question

Strategy development

Strategy fails on framing more often than it fails on execution.

I help you settle the question the strategy is actually answering, then turn it into next right moves, each carrying an owner, a date and a point at which you look again. You keep the reasoning, not just the document.

What it settles

What we are actually deciding, what we are assuming when we decide it, and what we do about it on Monday.

Two to six weeks · Executive team

04 · Get to a decision

Facilitation

A conclusion that survives contact with the organisation afterwards.

Boards, executive teams and groups drawn cross-functionally, and cross-sector where the problem warrants it. I hold the room so your people do the thinking, which is the only way the conclusion holds once I have left it.

What it settles

Getting a group that disagrees to a decision it can live with, and a record it can point back to.

Ninety minutes to two days · Any group

05 · Carry the harder conversations

One-to-one coaching

For managers, programme leads and people newly into an executive role.

The work covers professional development as much as the decision in front of you: building judgement, reading your own operating environment, and navigating the harder parts of organisational life. A role that has outgrown its brief, a team that needs more than it did a year ago, or an unwelcome view that still has to go upward.

What it settles

Sound judgement under pressure, and the range to carry it as the role gets harder.

Six fortnightly sessions · Managers to executive · NeuroLeadership Institute trained

06 · Read the relationship

Being on the receiving end

For organisations answerable to a regulator, a funder or an accreditation body.

What that relationship actually costs you, and what it would take to change how they see you. The law and the settings as the people who work under them actually meet them.

What it settles

Where compliance is won or lost, and what experience evidence says about how the settings are landing.

One to three sessions · Board and executive · Rx, with Dr Grant Pink, Policy Quarterly, November 2025

How the work runs

Workshop

Your people in a room, drawing on the diversity already in it to widen the perspectives and options in front of decision makers. Half a day to two days. Right when the thinking has to be owned widely enough to survive the next restructure.

Project

A defined question, a defined output and a defined end. Two to six weeks. The right shape when the answer must stand up outside the room it was made in.

Advisory

Me alongside you over a set period, on call as the decisions arrive. Sized by the month. The right shape when the pressure is continuous rather than concentrated.

Every service runs in any of these three, and which one fits is the first thing we settle. Fixed price, agreed in writing before I start, with nothing open ended. You keep a written record of the choice, the assumptions under it, the signals worth watching, and the next moves with a name and a date on each.

Book an initial sounding

Fathom 5 · How we think

Four sights. One decision.

Hindsight learns from the past. Insight reads the patterns now. Foresight explores possible futures. Oversight stewards what matters.

The first three build understanding. Oversight is where leadership begins.

What earlier cases, reviews and near misses taught, and whether the next decision changed.

The distinction

Most organisations have an oversight problem, not a foresight problem.

Foresight expands what could happen. Oversight decides what should happen. It weighs evidence alongside values, and it lets a leader hold a position in complexity.

The Fathom move

Frame which water we are in. Anticipate how it will move. Translate the complexity into decisions people can act on. Hold the uncertainty without collapsing it too soon. Orient the response to the situation rather than to habit. Move. Then keep taking soundings, because the situation will not stay where we left it.

The four sights. Warner and Pink, published through the Australia and New Zealand School of Government, 2023.

Fathom 8 · Beneath the surface

The four depths

One system, four readings. Each depth takes a different kind of evidence.

  1. 1fm

    What we report

    Compliance rates, case volumes, resolution times. The published surface of the system.

  2. 5fm

    What we assume

    The beliefs the system runs on. Who the regulated party is, what moves them, what counts as evidence.

  3. 10fm

    What is practised

    What frontline staff actually do when the rule is ambiguous, and what the regulated party has learned to expect.

  4. 20fm

    What it favours

    The behaviour the settings reward over time, including the behaviour nobody intended to reward.

The four depths, read as marks on a descending sounding line.

You cannot read depth from the surface. You take soundings.

Two panels. The chart, studying the water from above. The sounding, taken from within the water you are studying.
The chart and the sounding

The water is your regulatory context: the law, the market, the people you regulate, the politics, the technology and public expectations. It does not hold still while you study it.

The chart is the system as understood from above, which is what most reviews produce. The sounding is the system as experienced from within, measured here and now.

The chart tells you what the system is supposed to be. The sounding tells you what it is doing today, and what that means for the decision in front of you. My work is to take the sounding and put the reading in writing.

Where change is possible

Shift the system, don’t chase the target.

  • Fixed for now

    Statute, mandate, machinery of government. Work with it.

  • Movable, not by you alone

    Funding, ministerial appetite, industry norms. Your real leverage.

  • Moves too easily

    Sentiment, one loud voice. A warning, not a win.

Constraint mapping here draws on Estuarine mapping, the work of Dave Snowden and The Cynefin Co.

Rob Warner leading a session at the front of a room of regulatory staff.
A session in progress. The record comes out of the room, not after it.

Fathom 12 · Why Fathom

Why Fathom

Rob Warner, principal of Fathom Practice, in Wellington.
PrincipalRob Warner

Three decades navigating deep water.

Thirty years in the New Zealand public service, the last nine as Chief Advisor Strategy and Foresight at Maritime New Zealand. I have sat on the inside of a regulator when the answer was not obvious, and I have carried the view the room did not want to hear. I work with boards and chief executives, with regulatory managers and advisory teams, and with cross-sector groups including industry and NGOs, in New Zealand, Australia and internationally.

  • Strategic foresight
  • Cynefin practitioner
  • Oxford Scenarios Programme
  • Regulation
  • Governance advisory
  • Executive facilitation

Trained in

  • Strategic foresight

    Anticipating change through structured scenario work, trained through the Oxford Scenarios Programme at Saïd Business School.

  • Regulatory strategy

    Designing and reforming regulatory systems for legitimacy and effect.

  • Governance advisory

    Advising boards and executives on the stewardship of complex systems.

  • Executive facilitation

    Chairing the conversations senior leaders cannot chair themselves.

  • Evaluation

    Making sense of what has happened, and what it means for what comes next.

  • Complexity practice

    Cynefin and applied complexity used on live decisions. Cynefin is the work of Dave Snowden and The Cynefin Co.

  • Workshops

    Designing sessions that produce a record senior teams can act on.

  • Coaching

    One to one work with advisors carrying a view the room does not want.

  • HIFO enabled sense-making to drive regulatory action-taking, developed with Dr Grant Pink.
  • Guest faculty, Australia and New Zealand School of Government.
  • Certified Foresight Practitioner, The Futures School. Trained in the Oxford Scenarios Programme at Saïd Business School. Cynefin trained through The Cynefin Co, the work of Dave Snowden and The Cynefin Co. NeuroLeadership Institute trained in coaching.
  • Member, Institute of Regulation, United Kingdom. Contributor, The Modern Regulator.

Fathom 15 · Evidence

The thinking behind the practice

Each of these came out of the work and goes back into it. Rx sits under sense-making, the four sights and HIFO under how a decision gets read across time, and the capability and diplomacy pieces under a stewardship read.

  • Peer-reviewed journal article

    The regulated experience (Rx): describing it, distinguishing it, defining it

    What regulation feels like from the receiving end, and why that experience decides compliance long before enforcement does. Warner and Pink, Policy Quarterly, volume 21, issue 4, November 2025.

    Read it
  • ANZSOG editorial

    Navigating regulatory landscapes: four sights to advance regulatory practice and governance

    Hindsight, insight, foresight and oversight, set out in full. The mechanism behind the foresight work.

    Read it
  • ANZSOG editorial

    Recognising, responding, readying, building: uncertainty-based regulatory capability

    How an agency builds capability for conditions that will not hold still.

    Read it
  • ANZSOG editorial

    Regulatory diplomacy: the practitioner's path to agility and foresight

    For agencies whose harm crosses a border and whose counterpart sits in another jurisdiction.

    Read it

Fathom 17 · The Regulatory Clinic

A collaboration

The Regulatory Clinic

Think. Challenge. Share. Learn. Act.

A high-trust space for people carrying regulatory responsibility. You bring a live question, test it against three practitioner lenses and the experience of your peers, and leave with clearer choices and a next move. Two days, eighteen people, Australia and Aotearoa New Zealand, under the Chatham House Rule, with a group check-in six weeks later.

An independent collaboration between Fathom Practice, RECAP Consultants and With Purpose Solutions. Each remains an independent practice.

  • RECAP Consultants logo

    Dr Grant Pink

    RECAP Consultants

    Regulatory practice, capability and evaluation across Australia and internationally. Grant and I deliver seminars, webinars and applied work together, including Rx and HIFO.

    recapconsultants.com.au
  • With Purpose Solutions logo

    Adam Beaumont

    With Purpose Solutions

    Work with leadership teams on direction and culture. Together we look at how organisations hold a course while the conditions keep moving.

    withpurpose.solutions
regulatoryclinic.com

Fathom 20 · Start

Start with a sounding.

Thirty minutes, no charge. You will leave it with a view on whether this is work at all.

If the regulatory context is settled and performing, I’ll say so.

Book an initial sounding

Write to Rob

Three lines about what is not sitting right is enough. This comes straight to me. Nothing goes to a list.

Jurisdiction